Well, it appears that football season is finally upon us (I've been actively ignoring the last 3 weeks of preseason NFL games). In case, it was unclear, I didn't go on hiatus because I was losing or really because of anything gambling-related. I just didn't have the time to dedicate to picking baseball games every day of the week. Football, however is a different story. Two days of games per week (and on the weekends) sounds perfect.
My plan for football season is going to be pretty similar (ok, identical) to the prevailing contrarianville groupthink. One unit will be 0.5% of bankroll. Standard plays will be 3 units. Bigger plays will be 5 units. At the same time, bigger plays will also be few and far between since a) I'm not even sure I'll have an edge in any game I play and b) I probably can't accurately quantify that edge. In other words, I'm going to be extremely conservative in my bet sizing and trust that Kelly (or some approximation thereof) will prevent me from going el busto.
Could I be doing a better job of managing my bet sizes? Yes. Is it necessary to a better job than this? Probably not. And it I realize that I am the rare gambler who actually enjoys the money management side of things. However, I think in the past I've failed to see the forest for the trees by trying to squeeze every theoretical dollar from the books while not really doing the analysis that will be the determining factor in whether I make money at all. I'm still going to be making rather than accepting offers at Matchbook though.
Bottom line: Conservative money management, more qualitative screening of games. Good luck this season everyone.
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2 comments:
Welcome back. I hope my crude math doesn't make everyone go bust-ski this season.
Let the pain begin
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