No More Blog

Unfortunately, this blog is going on an extended hiatus. At this time, I don't feel like I'm adding much to the community and my time, already stretched thin, would be better served posting picks on Twitter and the RMMB and by being part of the discussion in those and the other places on the sidebar.

I'll still update my record occasionally and possibly even post if I feel like I have something insightful to say, but please don't expect to see updates on anything resembling a regular schedule anymore. At least until I get fired from my actual job.

Yes, I'm Taking Them Too

I really shouldn't even have a blog at this point, since I'm pretty much just blindly following the picks of people who have done actual research. However, for those of you dying to know what I think about the Thursday Night game, here you go:

South Carolina +4 +102 (5)

First Day of School

This is my first full day of college football since I began doing this (somewhat) seriously. I'll celebrate by risking almost 20% of my season bankroll.

Akron +29.5 -103 (3)

Missouri +6.5 +101 (3)

Syracuse +7 +102 (3)

Army +3.5 -101 (3)

Louisiana Tech +13.5 +103 (3)

New Mexico +14.5 +105 (3)

Washington +17.5 +102 (3)

Florida Atlantic +21.5 +116 (3)

Middle Tennessee St. +18.5 -107 (3)

Army/Eastern Michigan Over 48 +108 (3)

Louisiana Monroe/Texas Under 61.5 +100 (3)

Utah State +20.5 +100 (3) at Utah

If I had waited until today, I could have played this at +21. It's always nice to screw up your very first game of the season.

Getting Back on The Wagon

Well, it appears that football season is finally upon us (I've been actively ignoring the last 3 weeks of preseason NFL games). In case, it was unclear, I didn't go on hiatus because I was losing or really because of anything gambling-related. I just didn't have the time to dedicate to picking baseball games every day of the week. Football, however is a different story. Two days of games per week (and on the weekends) sounds perfect.

My plan for football season is going to be pretty similar (ok, identical) to the prevailing contrarianville groupthink. One unit will be 0.5% of bankroll. Standard plays will be 3 units. Bigger plays will be 5 units. At the same time, bigger plays will also be few and far between since a) I'm not even sure I'll have an edge in any game I play and b) I probably can't accurately quantify that edge. In other words, I'm going to be extremely conservative in my bet sizing and trust that Kelly (or some approximation thereof) will prevent me from going el busto.

Could I be doing a better job of managing my bet sizes? Yes. Is it necessary to a better job than this? Probably not. And it I realize that I am the rare gambler who actually enjoys the money management side of things. However, I think in the past I've failed to see the forest for the trees by trying to squeeze every theoretical dollar from the books while not really doing the analysis that will be the determining factor in whether I make money at all. I'm still going to be making rather than accepting offers at Matchbook though.

Bottom line: Conservative money management, more qualitative screening of games. Good luck this season everyone.

Taking the Rest of The Baseball Season Off

After reflecting for a weekend (plus two days), I realize that because of other obligations I just don't have the time to do an adequate job with this site anymore. I'm not sure I ever did.

What I've learned in the past few months is mainly that it's really really hard to be good at something unless you can dedicate yourself to it. I fully believe that if this was a full-time or even a part time job, I could use the contrarian principles that have motivated my bets and the bets of those that run the sites you see over there on the sidebar to turn a profit at worst and make a decent living at best. Without that kind of time, this is just an expensive hobby and one that I can't currently afford the luxury of having.

So, in conclusion thanks to everyone I've interacted with over the last few months--I'll see you all in September.

Taking the Weekend Off

I'm out of town starting today and through the weekend and my internet access will be limited. It's probably a good time for a break regardless.

Losing Patience

I realize that favorites are winning at an unsustainable pace, but this is still frustrating nonetheless. One positive: no Nats today. People must really hate the Mets.

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +132 (2.04) vs. Milwaukee
Arizona +139 (2.29) @ Colorado
San Diego +106 (2.84) vs. Florida
Cincinnati +190 (1.73) @ LA Dodgers
Seattle +159 (1.96) @ Detroit
Baltimore +169 (0.99) @ NY Yankees
Cleveland -105 (0.75) @ Toronto
Texas +165 (1.79) vs. Boston
Chicago White Sox +117 (1.31) vs. Tampa Bay
Kansas City +124 (1.63) vs. LA Angels (Game 2 of DH)
Oakland -122 (1.86) vs. Minnesota
San Francisco/Atlanta Over 8.5 -105 (1.29)
St. Louis/Houston Over 8.5 -104 (0.04)
Cleveland/Toronto Over 8.5 +110 (1.19)
Tampa Bay/Chicago White Sox Over 10 -105 (0.27)

Tough Act To Follow

Let's see if I can go 0-12 today to follow up yesterday's stellar results.

Baseball:
Washington -118 (3.02) vs. NY Mets
San Francisco +166 (1.52) @ Atlanta
Arizona +148 (2.35) @ Colorado
San Diego +104 (1.96) vs. Florida
Cincinnati +137 (1.44) @ LA Dodgers
Texas +101 (1.26) vs. Boston
Tampa Bay -101 (2) @ Chicago White Sox
Kansas City +120 (1.69) vs. LA Angels RAIN
Oakland +118 (2.21) vs. Minnesota
Chicago Cubs/Philadelphia Over 9.5 +108 (1.46)
San Francisco/Atlanta Over 8 -107 (2.36)
St. Louis/Houston Over 9.5 +113 (1.55)

The Worst Thing Ever

Positions: 11
Average Implied Winning Percentage of Said Positions: 44.84%
Actual Winning Percentage: 0.00%

Fun stuff. Go Nats!