July 28, 2009

Taking the Rest of The Baseball Season Off

After reflecting for a weekend (plus two days), I realize that because of other obligations I just don't have the time to do an adequate job with this site anymore. I'm not sure I ever did.

What I've learned in the past few months is mainly that it's really really hard to be good at something unless you can dedicate yourself to it. I fully believe that if this was a full-time or even a part time job, I could use the contrarian principles that have motivated my bets and the bets of those that run the sites you see over there on the sidebar to turn a profit at worst and make a decent living at best. Without that kind of time, this is just an expensive hobby and one that I can't currently afford the luxury of having.

So, in conclusion thanks to everyone I've interacted with over the last few months--I'll see you all in September.

July 22, 2009

Taking the Weekend Off

I'm out of town starting today and through the weekend and my internet access will be limited. It's probably a good time for a break regardless.

July 21, 2009

Losing Patience

I realize that favorites are winning at an unsustainable pace, but this is still frustrating nonetheless. One positive: no Nats today. People must really hate the Mets.

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +132 (2.04) vs. Milwaukee
Arizona +139 (2.29) @ Colorado
San Diego +106 (2.84) vs. Florida
Cincinnati +190 (1.73) @ LA Dodgers
Seattle +159 (1.96) @ Detroit
Baltimore +169 (0.99) @ NY Yankees
Cleveland -105 (0.75) @ Toronto
Texas +165 (1.79) vs. Boston
Chicago White Sox +117 (1.31) vs. Tampa Bay
Kansas City +124 (1.63) vs. LA Angels (Game 2 of DH)
Oakland -122 (1.86) vs. Minnesota
San Francisco/Atlanta Over 8.5 -105 (1.29)
St. Louis/Houston Over 8.5 -104 (0.04)
Cleveland/Toronto Over 8.5 +110 (1.19)
Tampa Bay/Chicago White Sox Over 10 -105 (0.27)

July 20, 2009

Tough Act To Follow

Let's see if I can go 0-12 today to follow up yesterday's stellar results.

Baseball:
Washington -118 (3.02) vs. NY Mets
San Francisco +166 (1.52) @ Atlanta
Arizona +148 (2.35) @ Colorado
San Diego +104 (1.96) vs. Florida
Cincinnati +137 (1.44) @ LA Dodgers
Texas +101 (1.26) vs. Boston
Tampa Bay -101 (2) @ Chicago White Sox
Kansas City +120 (1.69) vs. LA Angels RAIN
Oakland +118 (2.21) vs. Minnesota
Chicago Cubs/Philadelphia Over 9.5 +108 (1.46)
San Francisco/Atlanta Over 8 -107 (2.36)
St. Louis/Houston Over 9.5 +113 (1.55)

July 19, 2009

The Worst Thing Ever

Positions: 11
Average Implied Winning Percentage of Said Positions: 44.84%
Actual Winning Percentage: 0.00%

Fun stuff. Go Nats!

Sunday Afternoon

Baseball:
San Diego +122 (3.54) vs. Colorado
Houston +200 (1.36) @ LA Dodgers
Oakland +104 (3.91) vs. LA Angels

Sunday Morning

It seems that my comments on games are going to be pretty brief during the 2nd half of the season since I'm finding that I need to work much harder to make sure I get the best possible line for each game.

Baseball:
Florida +106 (2.17) vs. Philadelphia
Washington +104 (2.44) vs. Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh +103 (2.68) vs. San Francisco
Arizona +206 (1.64) @ St. Louis
Cleveland +103 (2.74) vs. Seattle
Kansas City +140 (0.71) vs. Tampa Bay
San Francisco/Pittsburgh Over 7.5 +113 (0.76)
Arizona/St. Louis Over 9 +110 (0.98)

July 18, 2009

The Rest of Saturday

Baseball:
San Diego +109 (2.62) vs. Colorado
Houston +210 (0.62) @ LA Dodgers vs. Colorado
Colorado/San Diego Under 7.5 -110 (1.42)

5 O'Clock

Baseball:
Minnesota +110 (3.71) @ Texas

4 O'Clock Games

Baseball:
Pittsburgh -115 (3.88) vs. San Francisco
Washington +108 (4.2) vs. Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia +121 (1.19) @ Florida RAIN
Arizona +109 (1.13) @ St. Louis
Cleveland +108 (3.99) vs. Seattle
Tampa Bay +123 (1.57) @ Kansas City
San Francisco/Pittsburgh Over 8 +112 (3.02)

1 O'Clock Games

Baseball:
Atlanta +100 (2.97) vs. NY Mets
Baltimore +137 (3.29) @ Chicago White Sox
Oakland +117 (4.05) vs. LA Angels

Just One This Morning

Baseball:
Toronto +103 (0.8) vs. Boston

EDIT: Kidding, one more...
Boston/Toronto Under 9 +105 (0.77)

July 17, 2009

So Far, So OK

Well, I didn't lose my entire bankroll yesterday so I consider that a win.

Baseball:
Washington +134 (3.36) vs. Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh +138 (2.41) vs. San Francisco
Arizona +192 (0.64) @ St. Louis
San Diego +145 (2.06) vs. Colorado
Houston +159 (2.09) @ LA Dodgers
Cleveland +131 (2.33) vs. Seattle
Minnesota +121 (2.26) @ Texas
Baltimore +156 (2.97) @ Chicago White Sox
Oakland -102 (2.28) vs. LA Angels
NY Mets/Atlanta Over 8.5 -114 (1.33)
Colorado/San Diego Under 7.5 -118 (1.83)

July 16, 2009

Fixing Something That's Not Broken

After one day of bets, I think I've finally figured out how I can live up to the name of this blog. I'm vaguely uncomfortable with the size of these "investments."

Ok, I'm lying. I'm completely uncomfortable with these bet sizes.

Baseball:
Washington +117 (2) vs. Chicago Cubs
San Diego +120 (2.8) vs. Colorado
Houston +139 (2.7) @ LA Dodgers
Cleveland -181 (0.7) vs. Seattle
Colorado/San Diego Under 7 +115 (0.6)

2nd Half Strategy

Before baseball's second half kicks off tonight, I thought I'd lay out my money management strategy for the 2nd half of the season. In the first half, my degree of confidence in my pick (units bet in other words) was determined by my system which measures essentially, just how anti-public a team is when compared with the prevailing line for that team's game. The flaw in this was that I wasn't taking into account the line that I was actually getting on that team. In retrospect, it made no sense for me to bet the same amount regardless of what kind of an "edge" I had vs. the prevailing line.

So in the last few days, I've attempted to quantify my edge. I figure any advantage I have comes from two sources: 1) finding teams with a better chance to win than their line indicates, and 2) the price I can get at Matchbook vs. the market price (I use the lines from Pinnacle as a proxy for the market).

From now on, I'll combine those two advantages into a single number that is my approximate "edge" and use the Kelly Criterion to determine the actual amount of my wager. I will then multiply this by half to guard against the fact that I really have no clue what I'm doing here and that my approximations of "edge" are based on half a season worth of data.

If you don't understand what I'm talking about here, it's ok, I don't really either. This is still a work in progress and it's not like I'm going to go bankrupt doing this. At this point, it's still all about perfecting the method. If you have any ideas, want to see my assumptions in more detail, or just want to tell me I'm an idiot and in way over my head, let me know at losingmoneyquick@gmail.com or in the comments.

Be back soon with tonight's picks.

July 14, 2009

Just For Fun

Consensus data has really taken a turn in favor of the NL since last night. I'm guessing this is mostly due to Longoria's injury keeping him out of the game. Regardless, I probably shouldn't screw around with the All-Star Game, but what the heck.

American League -101 (1.13) @ National League

You can look for the NL to end its 11-game losing streak tonight.

(EDIT: I realize the title might have been confusing to some people. To clear up any doubts, this pick counts in my record, and no, that's not just because I'm writing this after it already won.)

July 12, 2009

End of the First Half

I can't think of a better way to end it than betting on two different teams in both ends of a doubleheader...and getting both wrong.

Baseball:
Chicago Cubs +100 (1) vs. St. Louis

Blogger Is Having Problems

If the lateness of these picks prevents you from following them, you should probably write Google a thank you note.

Baseball:
Cincinnati +105 (1.06) @ NY Mets
Pittsburgh +220 (1.32) @ Philadelphia
Milwaukee -119 (1.11) vs. LA Dodgers
Washington +101 (1.42) @ Houston
Atlanta +135 (1.33) @ Colorado
San Diego +120 (1.06) @ San Francisco
Arizona +114 (1.34) vs. Florida
Cleveland +196 (1.31) @ Detroit
Kansas City +296 (1.35) @ Boston Didn't get matched
Oakland +181 (1.38) @ Tampa Bay
Minnesota -130 (1.06) vs. Chicago White Sox
LA Angels +134 (1.32) vs. NY Yankees
St. Louis +134 (1.14) @ Chicago Cubs (Game 1)
Florida/Arizona Over 8.5 -121 (1.09)
Cleveland/Detroit Over 9 -106 (1)

July 11, 2009

Saturday Night Fever

I'm going to go out on a limb and say tonight's Giants/Padres game will not match the excitement of last night's.

Baseball:
Atlanta +111 (1.08) @ Colorado
San Diego +224 (1.27) @ San Francisco
Seattle -106 (1.01) vs. Texas
Florida/Arizona Over 10.5 -110 (1.02)
Atlanta/Colorado Over 9.5 -109 (1.08)
San Diego/San Francisco Over 8 -103 (1.03)
Texas/Seattle Under 8 +107 (1.02)

Saturday 4 O'Clock Games

Baseball:
Washington +144 (1.25) @ Houston
Milwaukee +103 (1.2) vs. LA Dodgers
Cincinnati +132 (1.28) @ NY Mets
Cleveland +116 (0.97) @ Detroit
Baltimore +112 (1.34) vs. Toronto
Kansas City +162 (1.08) @ Boston
Washington/Houston Over 9.5 +113 (0.99)

Ugh

Baseball:
Oakland +177 (1.34) @ Tampa Bay

Just One This Afternoon

There's only two games, but still, percentage-wise this is light for me.

Baseball:
St. Louis +174 (1.27) @ Chicago Cubs

July 10, 2009

These Picks Suck

The only good news about this week is that I'm not just doing poorly, but unsustainably poorly.

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +160 (1.13) @ Philadelphia
Cincinnati +110 (1.14) @ NY Mets
Milwaukee +124 (1.05) vs. LA Dodgers
Washington +176 (1.34) @ Houston
Baltimore -103 (1.26) vs. Toronto
Kansas City +248 (1.34) @ Boston
Oakland +153 (1.35) @ Tampa Bay
Chicago White Sox +119 (1.01) @ Minnesota
Seattle +104 (1.34) vs. Texas
Florida/Arizona Over 7.5 +126 (1.02)
Toronto/Baltimore Under 10 +107 (1.02)
Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Over 8.5 +107 (1)
NY Yankees/LA Angels Under 10 +103 (1)

July 9, 2009

I Know San Francisco's Cold In The Summer

But this is ridiculous...

Click to Enlarge

Winning Day Please

I'm betting every game except one tonight. That's a good sign right?

Baseball:
Cincinnati +148 (0.94) @ Philadelphia
NY Mets +149 (1.28) vs. LA Dodgers
Washington +110 (1.11) @ Houston
Atlanta +125 (0.97) @ Colorado
Arizona -107 (0.98) vs. Florida
San Diego +256 (1.31) @ San Francisco
Kansas City +188 (1.35) @ Boston
Texas +174 (1.21) @ Seattle
Atlanta/Colorado Over 9 -116 (1.1)

The Slide Continues

Baseball:
Milwaukee +103 (0.97) vs. St. Louis
Tampa Bay +114 (1.24) vs. Toronto
Cleveland +118 (1.07) @ Chicago White Sox

July 8, 2009

Wednesday Night

Kind of a slow night.

Baseball:
Cincinnati +140 (1.38) @ Philadelphia
Toronto +155 (1.03) @ Tampa Bay
Oakland +170 (1.41) @ Boston
Cleveland +141 (1.02) @ Chicago White Sox
Texas +133 (1.01) @ LA Angels

Wednesday Afternoon 2nd Batch

Baseball:
Washington +173 (1.37) @ Colorado
Florida +105 (1.07) @ San Francisco
Baltimore +115 (1.32) @ Seattle
San Diego/Arizona Over 8.5 +122 (1.01)

Dear Public Teams,

Please stop winning.

Yours truly,
LMQ

This covers the early eastern games. Be back soon with the West Coast afternoon edition.

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +164 (1.39) @ Houston
Atlanta +116 (1.18) @ Chicago Cubs

July 7, 2009

Warning: Disaster Ahead

If you know me, you know I'm referring to more than just these picks.

Baseball:
Cincinnati +131 (1.39) @ Philadelphia
Pittsburgh +117 (1.07) @ Houston
Atlanta +100 (0.92) @ Chicago Cubs
Washington +131 (1.17) @ Colorado
San Diego +144 (1.08) @ Arizona
Toronto +185 (0.96) @ Tampa Bay
Kansas City +197 (1.37) @ Detroit
Oakland +234 (1.47) @ Boston
Cleveland +147 (1.22) @ Chicago White Sox
Texas +164 (1.08) @ LA Angels
Baltimore +132 (1.27) @ Seattle
San Diego/Arizona Over 9 +102 (1.16)

July 6, 2009

Back In Action

After a relaxing Sunday, I'm ready to get this rolling again. After 5 consecutive winning weeks, I've been in the red for the last two. Hopefully that changes right about...now.

Baseball:
Atlanta +107 (1.07) @ Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh +154 (1.1) @ Houston
Washington +181 (1.38) @ Colorado
San Diego +156 (1.09) @ Arizona
Florida +151 (1.13) @ San Francisco
Kansas City +133 (1.48) @ Detroit
Oakland +184 (1.07) @ Boston
Baltimore +104 (1.15) @ Seattle
Pittsburgh/Houston Over 9 +111 (1.04)
San Diego/Arizona Over 10.5 -102 (1.08)
Kansas City/Detroit Over 9 -103 (1.05)

July 5, 2009

Taking the Day Off

No picks today.

July 4, 2009

Happy 4th Everyone!

Baseball:
Washington +103 (1.48) vs. Atlanta
Houston +190 (1.46) @ San Francisco
Pittsburgh +137 (1.53) @ Florida
San Diego +130 (1.28) vs. LA Dodgers
Arizona +185 (1.04) @ Colorado
Seattle +210 (1.23) @ Boston
NY Yankees +109 (1.11) vs. Toronto
Kansas City +109 (1.03) vs. Chicago White Sox
Oakland +105 (1.11) @ Cleveland
Texas +117 (1.11) vs. Tampa Bay
Baltimore +139 (1.59) @ LA Angels
Milwaukee/Chicago Cubs Over 9 -112 (1.11)
Toronto/NY Yankees Over 9 +115 (1.07)

July 3, 2009

This Is Getting Ridiculous

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +160 (1.48) @ Florida
Washington +116 (1.49) vs. Atlanta
Cincinnati +115 (1.22) vs. St. Louis
Arizona +128 (1.21) @ Colorado
San Diego +134 (1.32) vs. LA Dodgers
Houston +105 (1.17) @ San Francisco
Oakland +132 (0.96) @ Cleveland
Seattle +113 (1.1) @ Boston
Chicago White Sox +142 (1) @ Kansas City
Baltimore +143 (1.44) @ LA Angels
Houston/San Francisco Over 8.5 -112 (1.09)

Friday Morning

Baseball:
Milwaukee +163 (0.95) @ Chicago Cubs
Toronto +175 (1.34) @ NY Yankees

July 2, 2009

The Last Two Days Have Been Rather Frustrating

Fortunately, it's pretty easy to chalk it up to bad luck. I'd need it to go like this for at least 3 days before I start making any crazy changes. Good luck to everyone tonight and have a great 4th of July weekend!

Baseball:
Atlanta -130 (1.12) vs. Philadelphia
San Francisco +128 (0.92) @ St. Louis
Kansas City +131 (1.28) vs. Chicago White Sox
Baltimore +148 (1.3) @ LA Angels
San Francisco/St. Louis Over 9 +116 (1.03)

Thursday AM

Just one game this morning. Do I feel another 1-0 loss coming?

Baseball:
Arizona +123 (1.25) @ Cincinnati
Arizona/Cincinnati Over 8.5 +101 (1.17)

July 1, 2009

Wednesday Night

Posting has been even less entertaining that usual this as I've been busy with work and getting ready for the 4th of July. Expect that to continue through the weekend. Hopefully, I'll still be able to post picks here but no guarantees.

Baseball:
Pittsburgh +130 (1.03) vs. Chicago Cubs
Arizona +151 (1.16) @ Cincinnati
Atlanta +107 (1.07) vs. Philadelphia
San Diego +109 (1.35) vs. Houston
Cleveland -115 (1.23) vs. Chicago White Sox
Seattle +169 (1.03) @ NY Yankees

Wednesday Afternoon Games

These are going to come in waves the rest of the morning. Check back often as I'll be editing this post with the additional picks.

Baseball:
Tampa Bay -122 (1.04) @ Toronto
Baltimore +142 (1.49) vs. Boston

The Next Batch:
Milwaukee -228 (0.93) vs. NY Mets
Colorado +133 (0.96) @ LA Dodgers
Oakland +116 (1.51) vs. Detroit
NY Mets/Milwaukee Under 7.5 +118 (1)
Minnesota/Kansas City Over 8.5 +124 (1.08)

9AM (?!) Game

Baseball:
Washington +162 (1.07) @ Florida